The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has recorded its strongest electoral performance in Saxony-Anhalt, winning 43.8% of the vote, marking a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape.
The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right political party in Germany, made history on September 6, 2024, by achieving its highest-ever electoral performance in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. The party secured 43.8% of the vote, translating to 39 out of 83 seats in the state parliament, just three seats short of an outright majority. This election outcome represents a notable advancement for the AfD, positioning it for potential governance at the state level for the first time since World War II.
The recent electoral success poses a significant challenge to the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002 but only garnered 17.2% of the vote in this election. The CDU’s diminished support reflects broader trends of political discontent and realignment within the German electorate. However, it remains uncertain if the AfD can form a government, as other major parties have signaled their reluctance to engage in coalition talks with it.
Origins and Evolution of the AfD
The AfD was founded in 2013 by a coalition of Eurosceptic economists, including Bernd Lucke, Alexander Gauland, Frauke Petry, and Konrad Adam. Initially named the Electoral Alternative 2013, the party emerged in response to the German government’s financial bailouts of struggling European nations during the Eurozone crisis. Over the years, the AfD has undergone a significant ideological transformation, shifting from a focus on Euroscepticism to adopting a hard-right stance that emphasizes anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric.
The party capitalized on the influx of approximately 1.3 million refugees to Europe in 2015, predominantly from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. This period saw a surge in anti-immigrant sentiment, which the AfD effectively harnessed to increase its electoral presence. By the 2017 federal elections, the AfD had entered the Bundestag as the third-largest party, winning 94 of the 709 seats.
Controversial Policies and Rhetoric
The AfD has consistently advocated for the forced deportation of immigrants and their descendants not considered “ethnically” German, a policy known as “remigration.” The party has also expressed strong Euroscepticism, calling for a potential “Dexit,” or Germany’s exit from the European Union, and has staunchly opposed the country’s climate policies. Furthermore, members of the AfD have faced criticism for attempting to downplay the significance of the Holocaust, notably with party leader Björn Höcke labeling Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame” in 2017.
Socioeconomic Factors Behind the AfD’s Rise
The AfD has found a particularly receptive audience in eastern Germany, where longstanding economic disparities and political alienation have fueled its growth. The former East Germany, historically lagging behind its western counterpart in terms of income, employment, and productivity, has seen voters express discontent with mainstream parties that have failed to address economic stagnation, inflation, and migration issues. Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, highlighted that the factors behind the AfD’s rise extend beyond immigration to include economic anxiety and deteriorating infrastructure. He stated, “The basic life of a German is no more as good as it used to be,” emphasizing the frustrations surrounding public services and the welfare system.
The Implications of the Saxony-Anhalt Election
The recent election results in Saxony-Anhalt have broader implications for the AfD’s standing in German politics. The party more than doubled its vote share from 20.8% in the 2021 elections, demonstrating its increasing popularity among voters. Voter turnout was notably high at 77.8%, reflecting heightened political engagement in the region.
The Saxony-Anhalt result is indicative of a concerning trend for traditional parties, including the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), which have struggled to maintain support in the eastern states. The CDU currently holds 15 seats, while the SPD, Greens, and Left party each have eight seats, and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has five. With the AfD’s growing influence, the potential for forming a stable government without the inclusion of the far-right party has become increasingly complicated.
The Future of the AfD and Germany’s Political Landscape
Germany’s political landscape has traditionally maintained a “firewall” against far-right parties, a commitment by mainstream parties to avoid collaboration with groups like the AfD due to the country’s Nazi past. However, this firewall is under increasing strain. In January 2025, CDU leader Friedrich Merz faced accusations of breaking political norms by relying on AfD support to pass a non-binding motion on tougher immigration regulations.
As the AfD continues to gain traction, the question arises whether the political establishment can sustain its refusal to engage with the party. Singh suggested that growing support for the AfD may compel mainstream parties to reconsider their stance, stating, “If AfD is going to keep getting popular, other parties need to learn to work with it rather than ignore it.” This potential shift could redefine coalition politics in Germany and fundamentally alter the dynamics of future elections.
