US President Donald Trump’s top advisers have privately warned that the Iran conflict could stretch through the end of his term in January 2029, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing US officials.
Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials have discussed in White House meetings the possibility that Tehran could withstand the US pressure campaign, including the naval blockade and economic sanctions. The discussions suggest Washington is preparing for a prolonged confrontation, even as Trump publicly insists the conflict will end soon, it has been learnt from the report.
Earlier the same day, Trump told reporters that the fighting would end “immediately” after the US midterm elections in November, arguing that Iran would no longer be able to sustain the confrontation.
The US President’s public comments appear to contradict the contingency planning discussed by his top advisers in the Oval Office and Situation Room, where the possibility of the conflict continuing beyond his presidency has reportedly been raised.
Trump returned to the White House promising to avoid prolonged US military engagements. His administration is, however, preparing for the possibility that pressure on Iran could require a much longer military and economic campaign.
US military preparations also suggest Washington is not operating on the assumption that the confrontation will end quickly.
The Pentagon has already extended some troop deployments in the region into 2027, according to The Wall Street Journal, while some air-defence units are being kept in the Middle East without a fixed withdrawal date.
Around 50,000 US troops are currently deployed across the region, with air-defence systems positioned in Gulf countries to counter Iranian missiles and drones. A third Marine Expeditionary Unit is also expected to deploy to the region this autumn.
The administration’s strategy has increasingly shifted beyond conventional military strikes towards an economic and maritime squeeze on Tehran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the approach, dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”, as an alternative to major combat operations. The campaign combines sanctions with a naval blockade aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to sustain itself economically.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Trump had already severely damaged Iran’s military and economy. “Only President Trump knows what he will do and when,” Wales said.
In the meantime, Iran has continued retaliating against the US-led campaign, including missile attacks and confrontations involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian tankers on Tuesday after Iranian attacks targeted American military vessels, although the reported attacks did not succeed.
A prolonged blockade might not necessarily produce a quick political settlement.
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and vice president for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said a naval blockade was unlikely to deliver a decisive result in the short or medium term. “The only realistic use of this tool would have to be predicated on plans for a long-term siege,” Maloney told the WSJ, warning that such a strategy could also trigger attacks on energy and economic infrastructure across Gulf states.
Meanwhile, US petrol prices have already moved higher. The average US gasoline price was $4.22 a gallon on Wednesday, up from $4.01 a month earlier and $3.19 a year ago, according to AAA.
Trump’s insistence that the conflict will end soon has not been matched by a firm timeline from his vice president.
Vance recently declined to describe the confrontation as a conventional “war” and said he did not want to establish an artificial deadline that Iran could exploit. “It would be irresponsible for us to write out our strategy and our timeline for an Iranian nation that simply cannot honour its commitments and cannot stop shooting at commercial ships,” the US Vice President said.
The US would also have to balance the Iran campaign against military commitments elsewhere. A sustained deployment in the Middle East could divert resources and attention from US priorities in Europe and Asia, states the report.
At the same time, American officials are concerned that Iran could adapt its tactics and rebuild parts of its missile, drone and radar capabilities.
The result is a widening gap between Trump’s public promise of a rapid end to the conflict and the longer-term scenario being discussed inside the White House.
