According to a recent survey by the Institute of International Education, nearly 60% of U.S. colleges reported a decrease in international student applications for the 2026-27 academic year, coinciding with a decade-high refusal rate for student visas.
As U.S. colleges face challenges in attracting international students, a survey conducted by the Institute of International Education (IIE) indicates that 59% of institutions reported fewer applications for the 2026-27 academic year. This survey, which gathered responses from 585 colleges between May 5 and June 11, 2026, reflects growing concerns about the future of international education in the United States.
The survey results, released on July 9, revealed that while 14% of the institutions noted an increase in applications, approximately 20% reported stable application volumes. Notably, among those surveyed, 43% characterized the drop in graduate applications as substantial, compared to 31% for undergraduate applications, according to reports from Inside Higher Ed.
Trends in International Student Applications
The data shows a marked shift in sourcing countries for international students. Only 39% of institutions reported stable or increasing applications from India, which has historically supplied a significant portion of international students, accounting for nearly one-third of total international enrollments in the U.S. during the 2024-25 academic year. In contrast, applications from China, which previously faced a decline, showed improvement; the percentage of universities reporting stable or rising applications from Chinese students increased from 58% the previous year to 65% in the current survey.
Vietnam emerged as a noteworthy contender, becoming the fifth-largest source of international students in the U.S. in 2024-25, with a 26% rise in enrollments, marking its highest total on record. Additionally, IIE’s Fall 2025 Snapshot indicated that 55% of institutions targeted Vietnam for undergraduate recruitment, surpassing India.
Looking Ahead: Concerns About Future Enrollments
Looking forward, the outlook for international student enrollment remains bleak, with 63% of institutions anticipating a decline in foreign enrollments for the 2026-27 academic year. Among those expecting a reduction, 92% cited barriers to visa applications, while 80% pointed to U.S. travel restrictions, and 77% noted that students were opting for alternative educational destinations. Sanjay Laul, founder of the recruitment platform MSM Unify, highlighted that students are not rejecting the U.S. outright but are instead weighing the uncertainties associated with U.S. visa outcomes against the stability offered by other countries.
As the refusal rates for F-1 student visas continue to climb, the global refusal rate reached 35% in 2025, an increase from 31% in 2024 and 23% in 2015, according to data from Shorelight, which compiled this analysis based on U.S. State Department figures obtained through a public records request. The refusal rate for applicants from Africa was even higher, reaching 64%, with Somalia and Sierra Leone experiencing staggering refusal rates of 91% and 90%, respectively. In South Asia, India’s refusal rate climbed to 61% from 53%, while Nepal’s rate surged to 81%.
Impact of U.S. Entry Restrictions and Policy Changes
The situation has been exacerbated by a proclamation signed on December 16, 2025, which expanded entry restrictions from 19 to 39 countries, covering F and M student visas, effective January 1, 2026. This development has prompted 70% of surveyed institutions to halt recruitment efforts in the affected countries, according to IIE.
Additionally, U.S. colleges have faced operational challenges, including the cancellation of student records in the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, the pausing of F-1 visa interviews, expanded social media screening, and even detentions of students based on political views, as reported by Inside Higher Ed.
Consequences for the U.S. Economy and Higher Education Sector
The ramifications of declining international student enrollment extend beyond academic institutions. The National Association of Foreign Student Advisers estimated that the decline in enrollments for Fall 2025 resulted in more than $1.1 billion in lost revenue for the U.S. economy and nearly 23,000 jobs. The association’s analysis suggests that for every three international students enrolled, one job is created or supported in various sectors, including higher education, accommodation, dining, retail, transportation, telecommunications, and health insurance.
In the 2024-25 academic year, U.S. colleges hosted approximately 1,177,766 international students, marking a 5% increase from the previous year and the highest total since IIE began tracking in 1948. Despite this positive trend, the overall enrollment numbers showed a slight decline of 1%, with new enrollments falling by 17%, marking the steepest drop in over a decade not related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
