In light of rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, several Asian countries have successfully negotiated agreements with Iran to ensure the safe passage of their vessels through this critical shipping route, which is vital for global energy supplies.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening military action if it failed to reach a deal by Tuesday evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This ultimatum came amidst escalating tension following Iranian threats to target shipping in the strategically significant waterway, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil shipments typically transit.
Despite the looming deadline, several Asian nations, including the Philippines, India, and Pakistan, had already established agreements with Iran to allow their flagged vessels safe passage through the strait. These nations have been particularly proactive due to their heavy reliance on energy supplies from the Gulf region.
Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, spanning about 21 miles (33 kilometers) at its narrowest point. It is a critical conduit for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making it a focal point of geopolitical tensions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), an estimated 20 million barrels of oil passed through this waterway daily in 2025, equating to nearly $600 billion in annual energy trade.
In 2022, around 82% of crude oil and fossil fuels exported from the Strait were destined for Asian countries, with China alone accounting for about 90% of Iranian oil exports. The ongoing conflict has noticeably reduced sea traffic, causing significant disruptions to global energy supplies.
Recent Agreements with Iran
The Philippines recently became the latest country to secure a deal with Tehran, ensuring “safe, unhindered and expeditious passage” for its ships. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro described the agreement as “vital” for maintaining energy and fertilizer supplies, especially given that the Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East. This deal follows a national energy emergency declared in response to soaring fuel prices triggered by the conflict in Iran.
Similarly, Pakistan announced on March 28 that Iran agreed to allow 20 of its vessels to navigate through the Strait, a move welcomed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar as a constructive diplomatic gesture. India has also maintained active negotiations, with its Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attributing the successful passage of Indian tankers to diplomatic efforts.
Additionally, China confirmed that several of its vessels had recently passed through the strait, although details regarding the conditions of their passage remain sparse.
Concerns and Uncertainties
Despite these agreements, questions linger about their scope and durability. Experts have expressed uncertainty regarding whether the assurances of safe passage apply to all vessels or only select ships flagged by specific countries. Dimitris Maniatis from the shipping consultancy Marisks noted that the lack of clarity raises concerns over the long-term viability of these agreements.
Roc Shi, from the University of Technology Sydney, emphasized that nations dependent on Gulf energy are increasingly recognizing the necessity of engaging with Iran to facilitate shipping routes. However, the situation remains precarious, with geopolitical tensions and military operations in the region potentially undermining these diplomatic efforts.
The implications of these agreements also extend beyond the immediate parties involved. For instance, there is speculation about whether shipping companies might alter their flags to those countries granted passage rights, particularly as many vessels currently fly the flags of nations like Panama and the Marshall Islands, which have not negotiated similar assurances.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
As diplomatic dialogues continue, the broader geopolitical landscape remains complex. Iran’s willingness to engage with countries traditionally seen as U.S. allies, like the Philippines, suggests a strategic maneuver to compartmentalize its relationships amid ongoing tensions with the U.S. and its allies. Roger Fouquet from the National University of Singapore’s Energy Studies Institute noted that Iran appears to distinguish between a country’s formal alliances and its participation in the current conflict.
In conclusion, while recent diplomatic breakthroughs have allowed certain Asian nations to secure shipping agreements with Iran, the long-term stability of these arrangements remains uncertain. The ongoing conflict and evolving geopolitical dynamics in the region will likely continue to influence the safety and reliability of maritime operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
