Recent findings indicate that some U.S. employment-based green card applicants, particularly from India, may face wait times extending into decades due to visa backlogs and annual caps on green cards.
A new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) reveals alarming projections for applicants seeking permanent residency in the United States, particularly among skilled professionals from India. As of December 2025, many applicants could encounter wait times stretching into decades due to significant backlogs in the employment-based immigration system.
The report specifically examines the employment-based first, second, and third preference categories—known as EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3—and highlights that a highly skilled worker from India applying for a labor certification or an employment-based immigrant petition filed in January 2026 or later could experience waits of 179 years in EB-2, 38 years in EB-3, and four to five years in EB-1.
Backlogs and Visa Caps
The NFAP attributes these lengthy wait times to a combination of factors, including a backlog that has built up over many years due to annual caps on employment-based immigrant visas and per-country limits on visa allocations. According to NFAP, Indian nationals represented nearly 79 percent of the total backlog in the categories examined, with an estimated 1 million individuals waiting for employment-based green cards as of December 2025. Of these, about 731,566 were in EB-2 and 213,414 in EB-3.
The report notes that the employment-based backlog in the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories reached approximately 1.26 million people by December 2025, marking a 20.6 percent increase from about 1.05 million in April 2020. The EB-2 backlog alone rose by 22.9 percent, while the EB-3 backlog increased by 30.1 percent.
Impact of U.S. Immigration Policy
Compounding this issue are the recent changes in U.S. immigration policy under the Trump administration, which has tightened rules and increased scrutiny across various legal immigration pathways, including employment-based visas and green card applications. Higher fees, expanded vetting, and other restrictions have been imposed on foreign workers, making it more challenging for some immigrants to secure or maintain legal status.
A spokesperson from the U.S. State Department acknowledged in correspondence with Newsweek that it is common for the department to reach annual limits on available employment-based visas for specific visa categories and nationalities before the end of the fiscal year. The department has emphasized that it processes all applications in accordance with statutory requirements and the date each immigrant visa petition was filed.
While the report underscores the challenges posed by backlogs, it also notes that waiting times can vary depending on an applicant’s priority date, future demand, changes in legislation, and the availability of additional visa numbers. The analysis does not account for government processing times, which can further delay applicants.
Country-Specific Wait Times
The NFAP’s estimates reveal stark disparities in wait times by country of birth and visa category. For instance, Chinese nationals filing in 2026 could expect waits of five years in EB-1, 25 years in EB-2, and seven years in EB-3. Conversely, applicants from the Philippines are projected to face zero years in EB-1, approximately 0.3 years in EB-2, and six years in EB-3.
Notably, the report highlights that the annual limit of 140,000 employment-based green cards, set by Congress in 1990, includes not only principal applicants but also dependent spouses and children. Additionally, a per-country cap generally restricts nationals of a single country to no more than 7 percent of available immigrant visas in any given fiscal year. This disproportionately affects workers from large-population countries like India, China, and the Philippines, who are competing for the same annual allocation as those from smaller nations.
Future Implications
The NFAP analysis concludes that, without legislative changes, the backlogs in the employment-based immigration system are likely to continue, resulting in some foreign professionals waiting years or even decades for permanent residency based on their visa category and country of origin.
The Visa Bulletin for September 2026 indicates significant delays for Indian applicants, with EB-1 final action dates set for October 15, 2022, while EB-2 is listed as unavailable for India. Final action dates for China and the Philippines are comparatively more favorable, with EB-1 remaining current for most countries.
In light of these findings, the State Department reiterated that the Visa Bulletin serves to notify applicants of their next steps in the immigration process, but it does not guarantee immigration status or the approval of an immigrant visa.
As the immigrant visa issuance rates have decreased for certain countries due to the administration’s focus on national security and public safety, the NFAP report sheds light on the pressing challenges faced by skilled workers seeking permanent residency in the United States.
