As American voters express deep concerns about the economy and democracy, a Pew Research Center survey reveals significant divisions among religious groups regarding their political preferences for the upcoming midterm elections.
(RNS) — A new survey conducted by the Pew Research Center has shed light on the political preferences of religious voters as the nation gears up for the 2026 midterm congressional elections. The survey, conducted among 5,062 U.S. adults from September 28 to October 4, highlights a stark divide among American faith groups; while many express shared concerns about the state of the economy and democracy, their political allegiances vary significantly.
Greg Smith, senior associate director of research at Pew, noted, “Overall, registered voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates than Republican ones.” The survey indicates that voters supporting Democratic candidates display higher levels of engagement and motivation compared to their Republican counterparts.
Voting Preferences Among Religious Groups
The findings illustrate that white evangelical Protestants represent the only demographic where a majority (73%) expressed a preference for Republican congressional candidates. In contrast, substantial support for Democratic candidates is seen among other faith groups: 74% of Black Protestants, 59% of Hispanic Catholics, and 61% of individuals who identify as non-religious stated they would vote for Democrats if elections were held today. White Catholic voters also leaned towards the GOP, with half indicating support for Republican candidates.
The survey results show a notable division; mainline Protestants appear split in their preferences. Additionally, at least one in six voters from each faith group indicated uncertainty regarding their choice or a willingness to consider third-party candidates. This uncertainty reflects a broader dissatisfaction with the current political landscape.
Concerns Influencing the Midterm Elections
The survey highlights that nearly all respondents, regardless of their religious affiliation, identify the economy as a critical factor in their voting decisions for the midterms. Specifically, 89% of Black Protestants, 87% of Catholics, 83% of white mainline Protestants, and 81% of white evangelical Protestants regard economic conditions as very important. Among those with no religious affiliation, the agreement stands at 83%.
Concerns about democracy also resonate across religious lines, with approximately three-quarters of voters from the major faith traditions citing it as a significant issue. However, opinions diverge on other pressing topics, such as immigration, where majorities of white evangelicals (65%), white mainline Protestants (63%), and Catholics (62%) place greater emphasis compared to nones (54%) or Black Protestants (49%).
Abortion and Other Key Issues
While issues surrounding abortion remain pivotal for some voters, less than half of white mainliners, Black Protestants, Catholics, and nones consider it very important in shaping their electoral preferences. Conversely, 58% of white evangelicals view abortion as a critical factor. Other concerns, such as healthcare and education, were mentioned but ranked lower in importance than the economy and the future of democracy.
Interestingly, the survey also reveals a decline in approval ratings for President Donald Trump among various religious groups. Currently, 58% of white evangelical Christians approve of Trump’s performance, a significant drop from 78% in January 2025. In stark contrast, approval figures are considerably lower among Black Protestants (7%), nones (17%), Catholics (30%), and the overall Protestant demographic (39%).
Political Sentiments and Dissatisfaction
The survey indicates that a considerable number of religious voters express discontent with both major political parties. Among Black Protestants, 65% hold a favorable view of Democrats, while 67% of white evangelicals approve of Republicans. However, a majority of other faith groups, including 52% of white mainliners, 85% of Black Protestants, 58% of Catholics, and 77% of nones, report unfavorable views of the Republican Party. A similar trend is observed for the Democratic Party, with more than half of white mainliners (67%), nones (52%), and Catholics (51%) expressing disapproval, alongside 87% of white evangelicals.
Despite the apparent political divisions, no faith group surveyed expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of the nation. Dissatisfaction was most prevalent among nones (86%) and Black Protestants (86%), followed by Catholics (75%), white mainliners (74%), and white evangelicals (66%).
Implications for the Texas Senate Race
While Pew’s report did not include data on Senate races, recent polls provide insight into voter preferences in Texas. A poll conducted by ReconMR and The Siena Research Institute indicates that Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton, with support varying significantly among faith groups. According to the poll, 59% of Protestants favor Paxton, while 53% of Catholics and 70% of nones support Talarico.
Another poll by UMass Lowell/YouGov shows a tied race with both candidates at 45%. The findings suggest a complex electoral landscape in Texas, where the significant presence of evangelical Christians typically favors Republicans, yet ongoing controversies surrounding Paxton may complicate traditional voting patterns.
John Cluverius, an associate professor of political science at UMass Lowell, remarked on the intricacies of the Texas race, noting that while partisanship largely drives voter behavior, the unique circumstances surrounding candidates can influence outcomes, particularly among religious voters concerned about candidate integrity.
